A study carried out by scientists at Harvard has found that social distancing measures may need to be in place until 2022. It also states that surveillance will need to be in place to prevent a resurgence of the virus until 2024.
With the social distancing & various levels of on-going lockdowns around the world in place, we are already seeing the economic effects that come from shutting everything down.
It is important to note that this is just one study, and is not being adopted by any governments, but with a lack of any exit strategy on the horizon, i think its important to see what the scientists are saying.
The study also finds that there is very little hope that COVID19 will ever entirely go away. It suggests the world may go through new waves every few years.
The scientists also admit that all of their findings are subject to change as variables change & more data becomes available.
You can check out the paper [click here] which reads…
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
I think we can all see the need to break the chain of transmission by social distancing, but at the same time we cant go on like this much longer without seriously damaging the economies of countries around the world.
My own personal fear is that before anyone is allowed to get back to some kind of normality, we may be persuaded to trade some more of our ever dwindling freedoms in order to do so.
There is already so much information out there about new technologies, including the use of drones & apps for our smart phones, that will monitor individuals & detect early signs of any potential resurgence of the virus.
We need to act responsibly, not putting others in danger & not giving the government any more justification to roll out harsher measures. We will never go back to the way things were, but lets make sure the ‘new normal’ isn’t what governments have craved after forever – a global New World Order.